Development situation and prospect of natural gas in China

Development potential analysis

Clarify the development orientation of the four types of gas reservoirs, and give precise policies to ensure the efficient development of the natural gas industry. Conventional gas is the "ballast stone" of stable production and emergency supply, is the basis of economic benefits, and needs to ensure steady development; Tight gas is the most realistic field to accelerate production, which can accelerate development and benefit development. Shale gas is an important field of production replacement, which emphasizes technical research and strives to achieve scale efficiency development. Deep coal bed gas is a new field of sustainable development, and it is implemented steadily and strives to break through the scale and efficiency.

Scenario 1: According to the economic recoverable reserves scale, storage and production ratio, stable production period, production and construction rhythm and other constraints, the use of SEC reserves of 2.03 trillion cubic meters and new economic recoverable reserves of 7.3 trillion cubic meters, is expected to reach the peak of 200 billion cubic meters in 2035, stable production until 2060.

Scenario 2: The use of SEC reserves of 2.03 trillion cubic meters and new economic recoverable reserves of 8.2 trillion cubic meters, considering the economic recoverable reserves replacement rate of more than 1 and storage and production ratio of more than 10 constraints, is expected to peak at 220 billion cubic meters in 2035, stable production until 2060. If a huge breakthrough is made in deep coalbed methane, China's oil production is expected to reach more than 240 billion cubic meters.

In the longer term, China's oil production will continue to account for 61% to 66% of the national production, according to the median 63% calculation, China's natural gas will peak in 2035 to 2040, the production scale of 317 billion to 380 billion cubic meters. Overall, peak production above 300 billion cubic meters is achievable.

Natural gas development pattern

In 2022, China will produce 220 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 84 billion cubic meters of unconventional gas, accounting for 38.2%. Natural gas business has achieved leapfrog development in recent years, and will continue to show a trend of "stable development of conventional gas and rapid development of unconventional gas" in the future. It is estimated that in 2035, China's natural gas output will be 317 billion to 380 billion cubic meters, and the output of unconventional gas will be 180 billion to 210 billion cubic meters.

To form China's first 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas super production base. In 2022, the output of Sulige gas field will reach 30.56 billion cubic meters, becoming the only super gas field with an annual output of more than 30 billion cubic meters in China and entering the ranks of the world's super large gas fields. The output of Changqing gas region will exceed 50 billion cubic meters in 2022. Ordos Basin will build China's first 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas super production base before 2030, and continue to maintain production growth.

Conventional and unconventional gas production accounts for half of the total. Conventional gas is the "ballast stone" of stable production. In 2035, the production will increase to 151.5 billion cubic meters, and maintain long-term stable production. Conventional gas fields have both stable gas supply and production regulation functions. Developed gas fields focus on the two main lines of controlling decline rate and improving recovery rate, and consolidate the stable production foundation through the measures of overall water control, reconstruction of well pattern and rolling edge expansion. New areas and new areas promote the overall construction with high quality by accelerating the evaluation and construction of new reserves.

Tight gas is the most realistic area for accelerating production. By 2035, the production will reach 80 billion cubic meters and maintain long-term stable production. The main development zone aims to improve oil recovery, and takes measures such as fine characterization of residual gas and interwell encryption. The new layer system of the new district aims to increase production, improve efficiency and reduce cost, and adopts the three-dimensional development mode of large well cluster, factory, multi-layer system and multi-well type to promote and apply new technology and accelerate the rhythm of construction and production.

Shale gas is an important area for production replacement. By 2035, the production will reach 40 billion cubic meters, and maintain long-term stable production. In Changning-Weiyuan and Zhaotong medium and deep shale gas fields, the development technology of multi-layer and multi-set well patterns has been studied and applied in order to improve oil recovery by three-dimensional development. With the goal of efficient development, deep shale gas in Luzhou and West Chongqing should upgrade the fracturing 2.0 technology with the core of "multi-cluster in the segment + large-displacement fracture creation + high-strength sand addition + temporary plugging and diversion". Meanwhile, it should strengthen evaluation, plan preparation and on-site organization guarantee, especially reduce development investment.