Scanning the past decade of energy development, cooperation and governance in the Middle East-Arab countries

There is no doubt that the Middle East-Arab countries have always been the heart of global energy development and cooperation, and of course, it is also the focus of great power games and national conflicts.

By the end of 2021, the remaining recoverable reserves of oil and natural gas in the Middle East are 113.2 billion tons and 75.8 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 48.3% and 40.3% of the global total, respectively. In 2021, oil and natural gas production in the Middle East will reach 1.316 billion tons and 714.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for 31.2% and 17.7% of the global total, respectively. The Middle East is also the world's largest oil export market, with an average annual oil export of about 1 billion tons in recent years. The Middle East is also a high ground for international cooperation in global energy, with almost all global oil majors, international national oil companies and independent oil companies participating in investment operations, trade and engineering services in the Middle East region.

The past decade has seen the Middle East and Arab countries gradually emerge from the shadow of the "Arab Spring" events in November 2010, a decade in which countries in the region have paid more attention to their own economic development and moved from conflict to cooperation, and a decade in which the United States and other non-regional powers have gradually withdrawn from the Middle East and their intervention has continued to decline. It is also a decade in which countries such as Syria and Yemen continue to suffer from civil wars and "proxy wars". It is also a decade in which regional energy development and cooperation have stabilized and made a series of major progress.

In the past decade, at least six strategic breakthroughs in regional energy development, cooperation and governance have strengthened the region's position as an energy hub, made international energy cooperation more diversified, and demonstrated a more resilient Middle East-Arab energy market.

One of the strategic breakthroughs: the discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean region. It should be said that in the past decade, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the South American Guiana Sea have respectively set a "miracle" of natural gas and oil discovery and development with the largest scale and impact in the world. Its Middle Eastern Mediterranean region is dominated by major natural gas discoveries and is expected to produce more than 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2030. If this is achieved, it will replace Russia as the largest and closest supplier of gas to Europe.

The specific situation is that since 2010, the international oil companies represented by the Italian national oil company - ENI Group and bp Oil company have discovered a number of large and super-large oil and gas reservoirs in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. According to IHSMarkit (now S&P Global), the Eastern Mediterranean region has proven recoverable reserves of about 3.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil. Among them, the Levant basin and Nile Delta basin are the most abundant basins and main natural gas producing areas in this region.

Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, Greece and Lebanon stand to benefit from the discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean, while Turkey and Syria join the race for gas and future pipelines in the region. The discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean has become the biggest highlight of energy development in the Middle East-Arab countries in the past decade, and of course, it may also be the "tipping point" of another conflict and war.

Strategic breakthrough number two: Doubling oil production helped Iraq largely rebuild after the war. The story of Iraq's post-war reconstruction can be called the most magnificent and the most ups and downs in the "big article" on the development and construction of Middle Eastern countries since the 21st century.

Historically, Iraq's oil production peaked in 1979, when it reached 3.49 million barrels per day (175 million tons per year). With the outbreak of the Iraq War in 2003, the level of oil production in Iraq dropped to 1.34 million barrels per day (about 65 million tons per year). In 2008, the Iraqi market reopened to the outside world. In the three years from 2008 to 2010, Iraq has become the "Olympic" of global oil cooperation and competition, and powerful oil companies want to show their skills in Iraq, participate in and witness the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. It took almost a decade for Iraqi oil production to peak at 4.8 million barrels per day in 2019. This year, Iraq's oil exports were as high as 4 million barrels per day. Iraq is back among the top oil producers in the Middle East and the world. If the investment of $500 million per million tons of production capacity is calculated, in the past decade, Iraq has absorbed a total of $87.5 billion in oil development and construction investment, which is rare in the history of oil development in the Middle East.