Analysis and prospect of domestic natural gas market in 2023

Natural gas supplies are generally adequate, and spot LNG gaps are limited. Foreign natural gas import prices continue to be high, domestic natural gas production to maintain the momentum of production, is expected to 2023 annual domestic natural gas production of about 232 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5.4%. The Central Asian pipeline gas exporting countries and China's Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places have similar latitudes, as the weather turns cold, the demand for natural gas will gradually increase, or have an adverse impact on pipeline gas exports. Under the conditions of insufficient driving force for substantial growth of domestic natural gas demand, continuous growth of domestic gas, increased supply from China and Russia on the Eastern route, and the implementation of the long-term agreement on new LNG imports, the LNG spot gap is limited.

Gas prices will rise seasonally in the heating season, and the overall trend in the second half of the year is "first low and then high". According to the analysis of the current supply and demand forecast results, it is expected that the national natural gas supply and demand in the second half of the year is basically balanced, and the spot LNG demand may be less than the same period last year. In the heating season, the seasonal adjustment of various gas storage facilities, production, import and other links can basically guarantee the demand for gas, and the shortage of supply and demand is mainly short-term. It is expected that the average price of LNG in the country from August to October is 3900 to 4200 yuan per ton; Into the heating season gas prices rise seasonally, the national LNG factory average price is 4,700 to 5,000 yuan per ton.

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In 2022, China's natural gas consumption will be 364.6 billion cubic meters, down 1.2% from the previous year; Natural gas accounted for 8.4% of the total primary energy consumption, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year.

In terms of consumption structure, the proportion of urban gas consumption increased to 33%; The scale of gas use in industrial fuel, natural gas power generation and chemical industry decreased, accounting for 42%, 17% and 8% respectively.

China's natural gas output was 220.1 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6% and an increase of more than 10 billion cubic meters for six consecutive years, of which shale gas output was 24 billion cubic meters. The country's new proved geological reserves remained at the peak of 1,132.3 billion cubic meters.

China imported 150.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas, down 9.9% from the previous year. Among them, pipeline gas imports were 62.7 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.8% over the previous year; LNG imports were 87.6 billion cubic meters, down 19.5% from the previous year.

Enterprise action

The natural gas branch maintains a good development trend through scientific overall planning

Since the beginning of this year, the Natural gas Branch actively responds to the fierce market competition, closely follows the theme of high-quality development, takes the annual business goal as the main direction, constantly innovates the business strategy, scientifically plans the volume efficiency goal, and promotes the realization of stable operation and efficient development. From January to August, the natural gas Branch accumulated 29.031 billion cubic meters of natural gas, completing 66% of the annual plan, and the main business objectives were successfully achieved, maintaining a good development trend as a whole.

We will continue to consolidate the resource base. Natural Gas Branch in accordance with the "quantity and efficiency, efficiency first" idea, based on domestic and foreign two resources, two markets, manage each cubic meter of natural gas. Proper arrangement of medium - and long-term resource shipping schedule, combined with the actual production and operation of the continuous optimization of LNG ship unloading, while closely monitoring the trend of international LNG import prices, spot resource procurement in advance. Actively participate in LNG international exhibitions, seek opportunities for international business cooperation, and accelerate international business. We will actively coordinate self-produced resources, intensify research on external resources, expand the scale of domestic gas, and continue to optimize the structure of resources. Build and improve the integrated direct supply business model of "petrochemical resources - petrochemical logistics - petrochemical gas stations - end users", and promote the synergistic creation of the whole LNG industry chain.

We will steadily advance key projects. In accordance with the principle of matching resources, facilities and markets, the Natural Gas Branch has continuously optimized the layout of facilities, adjusted the pace of construction of facilities, and accelerated the construction of key projects such as the third phase of Qingdao LNG Terminal and the second phase of Tianjin LNG Terminal. Among them, Qingdao LNG terminal has built China's first 270,000 cubic meters of LNG storage tank, will be put into use before the end of the year, when the station's annual gas supply capacity will be increased to 16.5 billion cubic meters, becoming the country's largest annual transfer capacity of LNG terminal in the same period. The Tianjin LNG Terminal Phase II project will be put into use before the heating season this year, with a total gas storage capacity of 1.08 billion cubic meters, ranking first among the LNG terminals that have been put into operation in China, which can further enhance the regional peak load capacity and ensure the stability and order of the regional natural gas market. In addition, the construction of key projects such as the Longkou LNG project in Yantai, the East Main line of the Shandong Pipeline, and the Northeast Anhui Pipeline has been advanced in an orderly manner.