From the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" to the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" power generation structure transformation

4, power structure transformation contribution analysis

In order to unify the analytical caliber, the types of power generation mentioned in this paper are divided into five types according to the energy used: thermal power generation (using combustion fuel), hydroelectric power generation (using water energy), nuclear power generation (using nuclear fuel), wind power generation (using wind energy), and solar power generation (using solar energy). According to the nature of the fuel used, thermal power plants are divided into four types: coal-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, biomass power generation (including garbage power generation).

The above types of power generation (using abbreviation) are classified into five types according to non-fossil energy sources, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar energy and biomass; According to the classification of fossil energy including coal, oil, gas three types. Below we mainly analyze the transformation contribution of five types of non-fossil energy.

(1) Changes in installed structure: The installed capacity of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power and biomass in 2010, 2015 and 2020 and their proportion in the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy are shown in the figure below.

According to the data in the figure, the overall growth level of installed capacity of each type of power generation during 2011-2020 can be calculated: the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 5.5%, and the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 8.1% and 3.0%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of nuclear power is 16.5%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 20.2% and 12.9%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of wind power is 25.3%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 34.6% and 16.6% respectively. The average annual growth rate of solar power generation is 76.6%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 117.8% and 43.2%, respectively. Biomass power generation has an average annual growth of 24.2%, and its five-year plan has an average annual growth of 25.0% and 23.5%, respectively.

(2) Changes in power generation structure: in 2010, 2015, 2020, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, biomass five types of power generation and the proportion of non-fossil energy total power generation.

According to the data in the figure, the overall growth level of power generation of various power generation types during 2011-2020 can be calculated: the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 7.0%, and the average annual growth rate of hydropower is 10.1% and 4.0%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of nuclear power is 17.2%, and the average annual growth rate of the first and second five-year plans is 18.0% and 16.4%, respectively. The average annual growth rate of wind power is 25.2%, and the average annual growth rate of the preceding and following five years is 30.3% and 20.2% respectively. The average annual growth rate of solar power generation is 119.6%, and the average annual growth rate of the previous five years is 230.6% and 45.9%, respectively. Biomass power generation has an average annual growth rate of 23.7%, and its five-year plan has an average annual growth rate of 27.3% and 20.3%, respectively.

(3) Contribution analysis:

Installed capacity contribution: From the perspective of the average annual growth rate of installed capacity during 2011-2020, the above five types are sorted: solar 76.6%, wind power 25.3%, biomass 24.2%, nuclear power 16.5%, hydropower 5.5%. However, from the perspective of the proportion of installed capacity in the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy, taking 2020 as an example, its ranking is: hydropower 37%, wind power 29%, solar energy 26%, nuclear power 5%, biomass 3%.

Power generation contribution: From the annual average growth rate of power generation during 2011-2020, the ranking of the above five types is: solar 119.6%, wind power 25.2%, biomass 23.7%, nuclear power 17.2%, hydropower 7.0%. However, from the perspective of the proportion of electricity generation in the total power generation of non-fossil energy, taking 2020 as an example, its order is: hydropower 53%, wind power 18%, nuclear power 14%, solar energy 10%, biomass 5%.

Third, the "14th Five-Year Plan" outlook

1. Development performance in 2021

In 2021, full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation reached 2.89 trillion kwh, an increase of 12.0%, accounting for 34.6% of the total power generation, an increase of 0.7 percentage points. Thermal power generation after deducting biomass power generation accounted for 65.4% of the total power generation of the whole caliber. After deducting the power generation of gas and oil, the coal-fired power generation reached 5.03 trillion kwh, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, accounting for 60.0% of the total power generation of the whole caliber, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year.

By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of full-caliber non-fossil energy reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year, accounting for 47.0% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding the installed capacity of coal-fired units for the first time in history.