An energy crisis, activate the global trillion nuclear power market

In the use of nuclear energy, China has traveled a long and tortuous road.

It took nearly 30 years from the successful detonation of the first atomic bomb to the commercial operation of the first nuclear power plant. It was not until 1984 that the first phase of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant began construction and was connected to the grid in 1991 that China really ended its history of no nuclear power.

Like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, hydrogen energy and other industries, the development of China's nuclear power technology has experienced the process of introduction, digestion and absorption, localization and substitution, and technology leadership, completing the "triple jump".

Since September 2004, the state has introduced the AP1000 technology of Westinghouse Company of the United States through public bidding, and started the construction of 4 AP1000 units, including 2 units of Zhejiang Sanmen Phase I and 2 units of Shandong Haiyang Phase I, as an autonomous experiment project, which opened the process of autonomy of China's three generations of nuclear energy technology.

While the unit construction, through the way of technology sub-licensing, to nuclear power design enterprises such as China National Nuclear Group, China General Nuclear Power Group, to Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric, Harbin Electric, China first heavy equipment manufacturing field of 15 groups more than 70 units for sub-licensing, and then the third generation of nuclear power independence of CAP1400 results.

The famous "Hualong One" is the integration and innovation of ACP1000 and ACPR1000+ technology.

CAP1400 plant concept map Source: Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute

At present, "Hualong One" has built four units around the world. On November 27, 2020, the world's first reactor of Hualong One, CNNC Fuqing Nuclear Power Unit 5, was successfully connected to the grid for the first time, and was put into operation on January 30, 2021. On May 20, 2021, the first overseas reactor project of Hualong One - Karachi Unit 2 in Pakistan - was officially put into commercial operation. On January 1, 2022, CNNC Fuqing Nuclear Power Unit 6 was successfully connected to the grid for the first time. On April 18, 2022, Unit 3 in Karachi, Pakistan, passed acceptance. At this point, Hualong One's first overseas project two units have been fully completed and put into operation.

If the three generations are still running, China has completely entered the leading ranks in the fourth generation of nuclear power technology.

The fourth generation nuclear power plant has several significant characteristics, taking the high temperature gas cooled reactor as an example, in terms of safety, the spherical fuel element is used, the granular fuel element core is covered with ceramic shielding material, and the melting point of the core structural materials graphite and carbon block is above 3000°C, even under the most serious accident conditions, there will be no core meltdown accident; The core outlet temperature is high, which can meet most of the heat source needs. The power generation efficiency can reach 40-47%, which is significantly improved compared with the 33% power generation efficiency of traditional pressurized water reactors.

 Among them, 10 of the 21 units under construction use the third-generation "Hualong One", all distributed in coastal areas.

However, only two fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors have been put into operation in the world, which are located in Rongcheng City, Shandong Province, China, and Oai town, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan.

The Government Work Report for 2021 clearly states that "under the premise of ensuring safety, nuclear power should be actively and orderly developed". This is the first time in nearly a decade that China has used the word "positive" to express its attitude toward nuclear power.

Under the guidance of the policy of "active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power" determined by the state, China's nuclear power generation has jumped to the second place in the world, and the installed capacity under construction ranks first in the world.

Northeast Securities predicts that China's nuclear power market space is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2025.

"China Nuclear Energy Annual Development and Outlook (2020)" mentioned that it is expected that by 2025, China's nuclear power installed capacity in operation to reach 70 million kilowatts, nuclear power installed capacity under construction to reach 30 million kilowatts, assuming the same scale of new nuclear power installed capacity every year, the annual new installed capacity of 7338 megawatts. With the construction cost per kilowatt of 12,000 to 20,000 yuan, the average annual utilization of 7800 hours, and the on-grid electricity price of 0.39 yuan/KWH, it is conservatively estimated that the market space of China's nuclear power industry will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2025.

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