Analysis of the middle and lower reaches of China's rubber industry chain in 2022

I. Industrial chain

The upstream rubber industry chain includes rubber tree, crude oil, naphtha, acrylonitrile, butadiene, styrene; The middle reaches are divided into natural rubber and synthetic rubber; The downstream includes tires, adhesives, sealing products, rubber shoes, tape, hose, latex products, etc.

2. Upstream analysis

1. Rubber trees

According to incomplete statistics, the global rubber tree planting area of more than 15 million hectares. At present, Thailand's rubber tree planting area is the largest in the world, accounting for about 25% of the whole; It was followed by Indonesia with about 24%. The Philippines ranked third, with about 11%; China ranks fourth globally with about 10 percent.

2. Crude Oil

In recent years, the overall fluctuation of China's crude oil production is small, and the development is stable. After a downward trend in 2016-2018, crude oil production returned to growth in 2019. In 2021, China's crude oil production reached 19.98 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year.

3. Styrene

China's styrene industry has developed rapidly in recent years, China is the world's main consumer market for styrene, styrene production showed a growing trend, from 6.849 million tons in 2017 to 8.588 million tons in 2020, the average annual compound growth rate of 7.83%, is expected to 2022 styrene production will reach 9.754 million tons.

3. Midstream analysis

1. Natural rubber

In 2020, due to the harm of powdery mildew and typhoons, natural rubber cutting was affected. At the same time, because Yunnan, Guangdong, Hainan and other places were affected by cold air, rubber cutting activities were stopped in advance, and the output dropped significantly to 693,000 tons. With the effective control of the epidemic, natural rubber production gradually recovered in 2021, and as of November 2021, China's natural rubber production reached 785,000 tons.

2. Synthetic rubber

(1) Output

In recent years, the national synthetic rubber production has basically maintained growth, and it has resumed growth again after a slight decline in 2018. In December 2021, the national production of synthetic rubber was 809,000 tons, an increase of 7.7%. In 2021, the national synthetic rubber production was 8.117 million tons, an increase of 2.6%, and the output maintained growth.

(2) Capacity distribution

Benefiting from the promotion of downstream demand, Chinese enterprises have put into production, and synthetic rubber production capacity continues to increase. At present, the production capacity of China's synthetic rubber industry is mainly concentrated in the eastern region, accounting for 66% of the overall production capacity, more than half. Northeast, western and central regions also have production capacity distribution, accounting for 15%, 11% and 8%, respectively.

(3) Apparent consumption

In recent years, China's apparent consumption of synthetic rubber has maintained a growing trend, and the apparent consumption of synthetic rubber in China in 2020 is about 14.066 million tons, an increase of 9.3%. According to the "Rubber industry" 14th Five-Year "development planning guidelines", the rubber industry will maintain steady growth during the "14th Five-Year" period, and it is expected that the apparent consumption of synthetic rubber will reach 17.21 million tons in 2022.

3. Analysis of key enterprises

4. Enterprise heat distribution map

4. Downstream analysis

Step 1: Tires

In recent years, the overall production of rubber tires in the country has shown a downward trend, and growth will resume in 2021. In December 2021, the national production of rubber tires was 82.435 million, an increase of 0.6%. In 2021, the national output of rubber tires was 899.108 million, an increase of 10.8%.

2. Adhesive

In recent years, China's adhesive sales have shown a steady growth trend as a whole, increasing from 89.71 billion yuan in 2016 to 107.96 billion yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.37%. With the further development of the market and the growth of downstream demand, it is expected to further grow to 121 billion yuan in 2022.

3. Latex gloves

Natural rubber latex gloves are made of latex. Natural rubber latex gloves dominate the market for rubber gloves in the medical and industrial sectors, as compared to nitrile gloves, natural rubber latex gloves are more comfortable and flexible for users. Global sales of natural rubber latex gloves, sales revenue accounted for nearly 20%.

In recent years, the global natural rubber latex gloves continued to grow, in 2016 natural rubber latex gloves sales 94.4 billion, 2020 sales increased to 133.2 billion, 2016-2020 compound growth rate of 9.0%. As the situation of novel coronavirus prevention and control continues to stabilize and improve, and the order of production and life is accelerating, it is estimated that the global sales volume of natural rubber latex gloves will reach 172.2 billion in 2022.

Data show that the global sales revenue of natural rubber latex gloves in 2016 was $1.728 billion, and the sales revenue increased to $3.731 billion in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 21.2% from 2016 to 2020.