Downstream demand boom recovery, chemical fiber industry ushered in a cyclical boom reversal

Chemical fiber industry: domestic and foreign demand picks up, replenishment cycle continues, and the industry ushered in a cyclical boom reversal

With the industry's production expansion cycle nearing an end, the supply side has been building a bottom stage. Driven by the pandemic in 2020

Downstream textile and garment export demand has increased significantly, inventories have fallen to historic lows, and the industry has entered the replenishment cycle. Principal product

The profitability of the product has rebounded, the market attention of the chemical fiber industry has increased, and the valuation has entered the repair stage

Warm up.

Polyester filament: downstream demand to drive industry prosperity continued to rebound

With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the demand of the downstream textile and clothing industry has led to an increase in filament demand and inventory

Fell to a historical low, the price spread in the "gold nine silver ten" ushered in an upward inflection point, filament profitability continued to improve.

It is expected that the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity will remain stable, the industry concentration is expected to continue to increase, and the supply and demand pattern will change

Good is expected to drive the industry prosperity continues to rebound.

Spandex: supply and demand pattern ushered in improvement, low-cost leading ushered in development opportunities

Affected by the demand for epidemic prevention materials and the transfer of overseas demand to the country, the demand for spandex in 2020

Steady growth, inventories continued to fall to low levels, and price spreads rose to historic highs. With spandex production cycle ushered in

In the end, leading enterprises rely on low-cost advantages to complete capacity renewal and market grab, and small and medium-sized capacity is gradually amoted

Tide, the industry concentration continues to improve.

Viscose staple fiber: downstream demand continues to recover, capacity expansion is coming to an end, and the substitution effect is helping the industry pick up

The rebound in downstream order demand has led to an improvement in the profitability of the viscose industry, and the industry's destocking trend is obvious

The differential cycle has reached an inflection point. Considering the gap between domestic cotton supply and demand and low cotton inventory, the substitution effect is expected to promote viscosity

The price of glue goes up. In 2020, the downturn in the market led to the withdrawal of some small and medium-sized production capacity, and the industry concentration was further strengthened.

Investment advice

In view of the situation at home and abroad is expected to improve, crude oil prices to return to the pre-epidemic level, comprehensive industry demand,

Inventory and price spread changes, we believe that the downstream textile and clothing industry demand will drive the entire chemical fiber industry prosperity

Liters. The superposition of new production capacity has slowed down, small and medium-sized production capacity has withdrawn, and the industry supply and demand pattern is expected to usher in marginal improvement.

Recommended chemical fiber industry related leaders: polyester filament recommended Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng petrochemical, Oriental Shenghong, Tongkun

Shares, Hengyi Petrochemical and New Fengming (first coverage); Spandex recommended Huafeng chemical; Viscose staple fiber recommended three

Friend chemical industry.

Risk analysis: oil price and macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The epidemic repeatedly affects the downstream chemical fiber demand risk; item

Less than expected risk of production.

Research background

At the beginning of 2020, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, domestic enterprises were blocked from resuming work and production after the holiday, and downstream textile clothing

The retail sales of the packaging industry declined sharply, the inventory of chemical fiber finished products was high, and the market of the chemical fiber industry deteriorated rapidly.

Since the second half of 2020, people's living consumption has basically recovered thanks to the sound situation of epidemic prevention and control in China

Return to normal, textile and clothing industry demand pick up. At the same time, the deterioration of the epidemic situation abroad has led to a sudden increase in the demand for epidemic prevention materials, and a large number of textiles

Garment processing orders were transferred to the country, and the downstream loom operation rate was greatly improved. Stocks of all kinds of chemical fiber products fell to a low level,

Expected to usher in replenishment cycle; Spreads continue to widen and profitability is expected to continue to improve.

In 2021, as vaccine research and development, vaccination continues to advance and crude oil prices gradually recover, the global economy

Under the background of strong recovery certainty, the growth of demand in the traditional textile and garment field will provide a strong price for chemical fiber products

Support, the chemical fiber industry is expected to usher in a cyclical boom reversal.

Where we innovate

We analyze the large cycle of capital expenditure of chemical fiber industry and judge the current capital expenditure of chemical fiber industry

At the historical stage of the great cycle. In addition, the changes in downstream demand for chemical fiber since the epidemic in the early 20 years were explored in detail

This paper analyzes the influence of the recovery of industry prosperity on the valuation trend of chemical fiber industry

BRRR. At the end of 2019, the capital expenditure of the chemical fiber industry slowed down, the new production capacity was basically ended, and the industry supply bottomed out.

In the second quarter of 2010, the domestic epidemic gradually came under control, the foreign epidemic worsened, and a large number of overseas orders were transferred to China.

The export demand of downstream textile clothing of chemical fiber increased significantly, the operating rate of domestic downstream enterprises increased, and the inventory continued to decline;

2020Q4 so far, with the gradual recovery of overseas demand, the demand for chemical fiber industry continues to pick up, and downstream enterprises take the initiative

Replenishment, the profitability of main products has rebounded, the market attention of the chemical fiber industry has increased, and the valuation has entered the repair stage.

Cyclical business continues to rise.

We analyzed the supply and demand of each sub-industry of polyester filament, spandex and viscose staple fiber. downstream

Demand picked up, polyester filament inventory dropped to a historic low, the future of filament new capacity stable, industry concentration

Continuous improvement; Spandex inventory fell to low levels, price spreads rose to historic highs, new capacity delivery slowed, and industry concentration

Continuous improvement; Viscose staple fiber destocking trend is obvious, the price spread is expected to usher in a turning point, while small and medium-sized production capacity withdrawal push

The concentration of dynamic industries has been strengthened. The supply and demand pattern of three types of chemical fiber products will be improved, and the industry will usher in a cycle reversal.

Investment view

In view of the epidemic situation at home and abroad is expected to improve, crude oil prices to recover to the pre-epidemic level, comprehensive industry demand, storage

Deposit and price difference changes, we believe that the downstream textile and clothing industry demand will drive the whole chemical fiber industry boom rise.

The superposition of new production capacity has slowed down, small and medium-sized production capacity has withdrawn, and the industry supply and demand pattern is expected to usher in marginal improvement. Recommended

Chemical fiber industry related leaders: polyester filament recommended Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Oriental Shenghong, Tongkun Shares,

Hengyi Petrochemical and New Fengming (first coverage); Spandex recommended Huafeng chemical; Viscose staple fiber recommended Sanyou chemical