Look for investment opportunities from the perspective of chemical industry trends

1. Look for investment opportunities from the perspective of chemical industry trends

As an intermediate link to undertake upstream production and downstream consumption, the chemical industry will usher in the reshaping of upstream production brought about by energy reform, and on the other hand will benefit from the growth of demand brought about by the development of downstream new energy fields (such as photovoltaic, wind power and new energy vehicles, etc.). We believe that the "double carbon" policy will accelerate the upgrading and adjustment of China's energy structure, the proportion of clean energy in total energy consumption is expected to increase significantly in the future, and the photovoltaic, wind power and new energy automobile industries will bring major development opportunities for related materials in the chemical industry.

1.1. The installed capacity of wind power is growing rapidly, and the demand for carbon fiber has ushered in an outbreak

Wind power blades are large-scale, and the trend of carbon fiber gradually replacing glass fiber is gradually established. At present, in order to reduce the kilowatt-hour cost of wind power and improve product profitability, global wind power giants have established the development goals of large-scale and lightweight wind power blades. In order to reduce the cost, it is necessary to increase the generation time and improve the ability of the fan to capture wind energy, and the most important way is to increase the sweep area of the blade and increase the diameter of the blade. According to statistics, wind power blade size has developed rapidly, from 2010 to 2019, the length of the blade has gradually increased from 100 meters to 125 meters, and the blade size is expected to further increase to 150 meters or even higher in the future. With the increasing of blade length, higher requirements are put forward for blade quality control. It is understood that the traditional blade manufacturing materials are mainly glass fiber composite materials, but the glass fiber blade weight is relatively large, has been unable to meet the development trend of wind power blade large-scale. The carbon fiber composite material has lower density and higher strength than the glass fiber composite material, which can ensure that the wind power blade can increase the length and greatly reduce the blade weight.

The installed capacity of domestic wind power is growing rapidly, and the demand for carbon fiber is strong. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's wind power installed capacity continues to lead the world, the pace of development is more stable than the "12th Five-Year" period, and the stable new market size has become the biggest foundation and driving force for industry progress. In 2020, 71.67GW of new wind power will be connected to the grid, and 52GW of new lifting capacity will be added, creating a historical record for China's annual new wind power installed capacity. According to GWEC's forecast, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will reach 909GW by 2023, and the five-year compound growth rate from 2019 to 2023 will reach 9%.

Global annual demand for carbon fiber is growing steadily and is expected to reach 150,000 tons in 2023. Since 2004, the global carbon fiber market has been in short supply, and the price of carbon fiber has risen sharply. With the significant increase in the demand for carbon fiber for aerospace, sports and leisure and industrial applications, the global carbon fiber market has grown rapidly, and the global demand for carbon fiber reached 36,400 tons in 2008, more than double that of 2001; Since then, from 2009 to 2016, global carbon fiber demand continued to rise, including 2015, global carbon fiber demand growth reached 28%. After experiencing rapid growth in 2015, global carbon fiber demand recovered to an average growth rate of about 10% in 2016-2018, and by 2020, the total global carbon fiber demand was about 112,000 tons. Assuming that the future growth rate of carbon fiber demand is still growing at a rate of 10% per year, the total global carbon fiber demand is expected to reach about 150,000 tons in 2023.

The demand for carbon fiber in the aviation sector mainly benefits from the lightweight drive of aircraft. According to the data of Zhiyan Consulting, the current demand for carbon fiber in the aerospace field accounts for about 23%-25%, and the demand for carbon fiber in the aviation field mainly benefits from the lightweight aircraft drive. Taking Boeing's B787 model aircraft as an example, 55% of the weight of the whole fuselage of the aircraft uses carbon fiber reinforced composite materials, reducing the weight of the aircraft by more than 20%, effectively achieving the development needs of efficient emission reduction; On the other hand, according to the official website information of Boeing and Airbus, in 2018, Boeing's composite aircraft B787 delivered 145, an increase of 6.6%, and Airbus's composite aircraft A350 delivered 93, an increase of 19.2%, directly driving the demand for carbon fiber in the aviation field increased by more than 11%. In addition, it is understood that the domestic C919 large passenger aircraft in the radome, wing front and rear edges, movable wings, winglets, wing body fairing, rear fuselage, tail and other main load and sub-load structure made of composite materials, of which 15% of the aircraft fuselage using resin-based carbon fiber material, this is the first large area of domestic civil passenger aircraft to use this material. We believe that with the gradual upgrading of carbon fiber materials technology and the gradual deepening of the layout of lightweight aircraft, carbon fiber has broad development prospects in the aviation field.