Research report: re-understanding Jingdong

From the perspective of incremental contribution, the cumulative growth of physical e-commerce was 19.7% (VS social zero overall growth rate was 8.0%), and the incremental contribution of physical e-commerce to the social zero overall reached 50.2%. E-commerce is a retail growth track and has become a "systemically important" terminal channel for the domestic consumer market.

Three rounds of user dividends to promote the popularity of e-commerce, the industry is expected to enter a new era of low-line upgrading and consumption differentiation.

Observing the 20-year history of domestic e-commerce from the perspective of e-commerce users, we believe that the industry has roughly experienced three rounds of user dividends, the current popularity of e-commerce users is basically completed, and the upgrading of low-line users and consumption differentiation will be the new keywords of the industry.

1) PC Internet user dividend (1999-2010).

PC Internet era is the first round of absolute user dividend era of e-commerce, 2007-2010, online shopping users increased from 46 million to 161 million, CAGR+51.2%. The industry has gone through a rough era from scratch, and infrastructure such as third-party payment, e-commerce logistics, and online IT systems have been initially built in this period.

With the listing of Dangdang in 2010 as a symbol, early e-commerce moved to the front after years of rapid development, and truly triggered the attention of offline retail.

2) Mobile Internet user dividend (2011-2015).

The mobile Internet era is the era of relative user dividends of e-commerce, and the absolute user growth rate has dropped (2011-2015 online shopping user growth CAGR+20.8%), and more user dividends come from the migration of users from PC to mobile online shopping brought by the popularity of 4G: from 2011 to 2016, the proportion of mobile e-commerce increased from 1.5% to 76.7%.

During this period, offline retail companies began the first round of online counterattack (Suning & Gome fought Jingdong in 2011, RT-Fat launched the Finiu network), but due to the wrong judgment of the trend (still dominated by the PC), left and right hand mutual communication (difficult to balance their own offline channel interests) and the loss of the absolute user dividend period, the first round of online counterattack of offline retail quickly lost momentum.

In 2014, Alibaba, Jingdong, Jumei and other listed successively, and the mainstream e-commerce pattern of the Highline market was basically established.

3) High Line upgrade & Low line user bonus (2015-2018).

After the completion of the popularization of users in the high-line market, the development path of e-commerce differentiation: the mainstream listed e-commerce seeks to upgrade the consumption of the high-line market, represented by Ali's "new retail" and Jingdong's "no-boundary retail", the mainstream e-commerce began to actively seek cooperation with the offline line, and promote the improvement of arpu with category extension, in order to break through the "high-frequency and low price" category that is the core of FMCG.