Looking back to 2023, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry is stable and rising

Oil and Chemical industry business index operating trend (historical average = 100)

Oil and Chemical industry business index operating trend (historical average = 100)

From the perspective of different industries, from December 2022, international crude oil prices ended the continuous decline and bottomed out, and the upstream mining industry rebounded significantly under the drive of oil prices from decline to rise, and the boom zone continued to be in an overheating warning. Downstream rubber plastic polymer manufacturing industry also rebounded in the case of gradual recovery of the demand side, the boom value rose by 6.79 percentage points, the largest increase in the sub-index. With the substantial increase in China's refined oil export quota, the fuel processing industry, which continues to be depressed, increased by 6.69 percentage points from the previous quarter. In the middle of the industrial chain, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry is under the pressure of rising raw material prices and destocking, the boom value is relatively limited, and it is still in the supercold warning range, and it takes time to recover.

In January 2023, the market is expected to usher in an overall improvement. With the implementation of various measures to stabilize growth, market confidence has been significantly enhanced. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI in December 2022 rose from 47 to 50.1, returning to the expansion range. Driven by China's economy, PMI of Southeast Asian countries has rebounded to varying degrees; The euro zone composite PMI rose to 50.2 in January, back above the line between expansion and contraction. The international market and the domestic market are expected to pick up the economic growth in 2023. Taking into account the predominance of the prosperity index, we expect that the industry will generally recover and stabilize in 2023.

Petroleum and Chemical Industry Climate Index (PCPI) is jointly developed by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation and Shandong Zhuochuang Information (70.500, 0.70, 1.00%) Co., LTD., which belongs to the micro-economic cycle monitoring index of the petrochemical industry. The index sample is located in the upstream commodity raw materials, and is calculated from the five dimensions of "capacity utilization rate", "product profitability", "inventory level of finished products", "cost profit rate" and "inventory turnover rate", including the medium and micro indicators.

In addition to the main index, the PCPI also contains four sub-indexes, namely, "oil and gas mining industry climate index", "fuel processing industry climate index", "chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry climate index", "rubber, plastic products and other polymer products manufacturing industry climate index".

The index algorithm belongs to the category of prosperity index of the synthetic method. The selection of industry samples is based on the National Economic Classification (GB/T 4754-2017) as the reference standard rule, and the characteristics of different industries are taken into account at the same time, and appropriate adjustments are made.