Global Energy Transitions Stocktake

The IEA Climate Pledges Explorer analyses NDCs from more than 190 countries to estimate energy sector CO2 emissions implied by their targets. The database also provides a complete repository of governments’ net zero pledges, including their legal status and target year.

The path to 1.5 ̊ C has narrowed, but clean energy growth is keeping it open

The case for transforming the global energy system in line with the 1.5 ̊C goal has never been stronger, with global CO2 emissions reaching a record 37 Gt in 2022. Already, solar PV installations and electric car sales are growing fast enough to meet the milestones from our 2021 Net Zero by 2050 report. Plus, innovation is providing new tools and lowering their cost.

But delivering net zero emissions will require larger, smarter and repurposed electricity networks; large quantities of low-emissions fuels; more nuclear power; and scaling up near zero emissions materials production. And, as part of an equitable pathway, almost all countries need to bring forward their targeted net zero dates.

By 2035, emissions need to decline by 80% in advanced economies and 60% in emerging market and developing economies compared with 2022 levels.

Momentum around low-emission hydrogen keeps growing, but progress is still hampered by cost challenges and uncertainty around demand

The number of announced projects for low-emission hydrogen production has grown rapidly in the past year, and could push annual production to 38 Mt in 2030 (from less than 1Mt in 2022). More than 40 countries have now enacted hydrogen strategies, further raising ambitions.  But scaling up production is now facing headwinds due to cost inflation and delays in the implementation of supporting policies.

Greater efforts are particularly needed to stimulate demand for low-emission hydrogen, which still accounts for less than 1% of global hydrogen production and use, and will need to grow more than 100-fold by 2030 to meet the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.  

Progress on electricity access has remained slow in 2023, hobbled by financial strains

The latest electricity access data confirms that for the first time in decades, the number of people without access to electricity in the world increased in 2022, rising to 760 million people. This setback was largely due to the combined impacts of the energy crisis and Covid-19 pandemic, and was concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, home to 80% of those without access to electricity today.

Recent IEA data and analysis suggest that in 2023 progress on expanding has access has resumed but is still below pre-pandemic levels, with solar home systems playing a major role. This update comes in parallel with an update to all of IEA's latest data on Sustainable Development Goal 7: ensuring affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy to all.

Stronger international cooperation in high emissions sectors crucial to get on track for 1.5C climate goal

In the past year, only modest progress has been made in strengthening international collaboration in the areas where it is most needed. Progress has been made in expanding financial assistance to developing countries in some sectors, and in joint research and development initiatives. But much more progress is needed in aligning policies to create demand for clean technologies, and in establishing dialogue on trade in sectors where this is likely to be critical to the transition. In most sectors, participation in the leading initiatives for practical cooperation still falls short of a majority of the global market. The report argues that greater political commitment is needed to progress from softer forms of collaboration, such as sharing best practice, to harder forms such as alignment of standards and policies, which are more difficult but can yield greater gains in mobilising investment and accelerating deployment.

The clean energy economy is gaining ground, but greater efforts are needed

Rapid progress of key clean energy technologies shows the new energy economy is emerging faster than many think. The IEA’s Tracking Clean Energy Progress finds that solar PV, electric vehicles and lightning are fully on track in 2022 for their 2030 milestones laid out in the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 Scenario. Progress can be observed across all of the 50-plus clean energy sectors and technologies evaluated, but accelerated policy support and investment are needed to quickly expand momentum across more countries and to all parts of the energy system to move the world closer to net zero emissions by 2050.

Clean energy investment in emerging markets and developing countries needs to grow steeply to reach SDGs and climate goals

Spending on clean energy in emerging market and developing economies outside of China has stagnated in recent years at around USD 250 billion per year. A seven-fold surge in clean energy investment is needed in these countries by 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement and sustainable development goals: less than 2% of the total would be enough to secure universal access to electricity & clean cooking fuels.

Governments have allocated USD 1.34 trillion to clean energy since the pandemic

EVs now close to 15% of global car market

Electric car sales exceeded 10 million in 2022, and accounted for close to 15% of the global car market, up from less than 5% just two years earlier. China continues to dominate the market, representing around 60% of all electric cars sold globally, followed by Europe then the United States.

A growing number of EV policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and new EU CO2 standards for cars and vans are driving the outlook for EV sales up, EV costs down, and and are leading to substantially less oil demand by the end of this decade. Around 500 models of electric cars were available to consumers in 2022, and supply chains continue to grow, especially for EV battery production, which is now responsible for 60% of global lithium demand, 30% of cobalt and 10% of nickel.

Global heat pump sales continue double-digit growth

Global sales of heat pumps grew by 11% in 2022, according to the latest IEA analysis, marking a second year of double-digit growth for the central technology in the world’s transition to secure and sustainable heating. Increased policy support and incentives for heat pumps in light of high natural gas prices and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were key drivers behind the strong uptake. In Europe, heat pumps enjoyed a record year, with sales growing by nearly 40%. In particular, sales of air-to-water models, which are compatible with typical radiators and underfloor heating systems, jumped by almost 50% in Europe. In the United States, heat pump purchases exceeded those of gas furnaces, while in China, the world’s largest heat pump market, sales remained stable.

In a year marked by energy price shocks, rising inflation, and disruptions to traditional fuel trade flows, global growth in emissions was lower than feared, despite gas-to-coal switching in many countries. Increased deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, electric vehicles, and heat pumps helped prevent an additional 550 Mt in CO2 emissions.

Methane emissions remained stubbornly high in 2022

Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Cutting methane emissions is one of the most effective near-term ways to limit global warming and improve air quality. Today, the energy sector accounts for around 40% of total methane emissions attributable to human activity, second only to agriculture. In 2022, the global energy industry released nearly 135 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere, only slightly below the record highs seen in 2019. However, emissions from very large leaks detected by satellite fell by almost 10% in 2022 from what was detected in 2021, and preliminary estimates indicate that there was also a reduction in natural gas flaring.

CCUS set to expand rapidly if all planned projects come online

The IEA's Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) database tracks all CO2 capture, transport, storage, and utilisation projects that have been commissioned since the 1970s and includes projects under construction and planned. If all projects in the pipeline come to fruition, global CO2 capture capacity would reach over 300 million tonnes per year by 2030.

Half the emission reductions needed to reach net zero come from technologies not yet on the market