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Global Energy Transitions Stocktake

来源: | 作者:佚名 | 发布时间 :2023-11-18 | 467 次浏览: | Share:

The latest IEA analysis tracking the global energy transition, covering technology, investment and people-centred progress toward the Paris Agreement

This year marks the finalisation of the first qlobal stocktake of the Pairs Agreement ,which assesses the world’s collective progress against its climate goals. In support of that important effort, the IEA is bringing together all of its latest data and analysis on clean energy transitions in one place, making it freely accessible to citizens, governments, and industry.

Reaching net zero emissions requires a complete transformation of how we power our daily lives and the global economy. The IEA's Net Zero 2050 Scenario lays out a narrow but achievable pathway to net zero emissions in the energy sector by mid-century – a trajectory consistent with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5oC. Following this pathway represents the world’s best chance of avoiding the worst effects ofclimate change , and requires accelerating the shift to non-emitting sources of energy, such as wind and solar; increasing energy efficiency; electrifying transport, industry and buildings; expanding the use of clean hydrogen and other low-emission fuels; and investing in emissions abating technologies, including negative emission technologies.

The IEA’s Global Energy Transitions Stocktake pulls together the latest data and analysis on the global clean energy transition, including energy sector greenhouse gas emissions, technology developments, energy sector financing, energy access and energy employment. Taken together, these indicators allow us to track global progress of the energy transition and provide an accurate and objective picture of where we are now, and the trajectories we are on.

This page, which will be regularly updated in the lead up to the UN's COP28 climate change conference, includes a calendar of all major report launches throughout the year, making it easy to follow the latest updates and find links to IEA’s publications and in-depth analysis. This series culminates in the release of a new Special Report on Climate which will explore viable pathways in the energy sector to 1.5oC.

In a complex global energy market he emergence of a new clean energy economy provides hope for the way forward

Today, the global average surface temperature is already around 1.2 °C above pre‑industrial levels, prompting heatwaves and other extreme weather events, and greenhouse gas emissions have not yet peaked. The energy sector is also the primary cause of the polluted air that more than 90% of the world’s population is forced to breathe, linked to more than 6 million premature deaths a year. Positive trends on improving access to electricity and clean cooking have slowed or even reversed in some countries.

Much additional progress is still required to meet the objectives of the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario which limits global warming to 1.5 °C. Alongside our main scenarios, we explore some key uncertainties that could affect future trends, including structural changes in China’s economy and the pace of global deployment of solar PV.

Current NDCs commit to an 8% decline in CO2 emissions by 2030 in the energy sector

Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) imply that energy sector CO2 emissions will peak this decade and fall to 30 Gt CO2 in 2030, 5 Gt less than in the first round of NDCs pledged in 2015. Although recent growth in clean energy is set to approach the levels in existing NDCs at the global level, most NDCs still are not aligned with countries' long-term net zero targets.

The IEA Climate Pledges Explorer analyses NDCs from more than 190 countries to estimate energy sector CO2 emissions implied by their targets. The database also provides a complete repository of governments’ net zero pledges, including their legal status and target year.

The path to 1.5 ̊ C has narrowed, but clean energy growth is keeping it open

The case for transforming the global energy system in line with the 1.5 ̊C goal has never been stronger, with global CO2 emissions reaching a record 37 Gt in 2022. Already, solar PV installations and electric car sales are growing fast enough to meet the milestones from our 2021 Net Zero by 2050 report. Plus, innovation is providing new tools and lowering their cost.

But delivering net zero emissions will require larger, smarter and repurposed electricity networks; large quantities of low-emissions fuels; more nuclear power; and scaling up near zero emissions materials production. And, as part of an equitable pathway, almost all countries need to bring forward their targeted net zero dates.

By 2035, emissions need to decline by 80% in advanced economies and 60% in emerging market and developing economies compared with 2022 levels.

Momentum around low-emission hydrogen keeps growing, but progress is still hampered by cost challenges and uncertainty around demand

The number of announced projects for low-emission hydrogen production has grown rapidly in the past year, and could push annual production to 38 Mt in 2030 (from less than 1Mt in 2022). More than 40 countries have now enacted hydrogen strategies, further raising ambitions.  But scaling up production is now facing headwinds due to cost inflation and delays in the implementation of supporting policies.

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