Slurry price resumption and deduction, this round of costs into the decline cycle

2.2. Box board corrugated paper: downstream e-commerce drives the growth of demand for packaging paper

Demand side: With the rapid development of downstream e-commerce, the demand for packaging paper is larger, and the overall demand for pulling box board corrugated paper is repaired. According to ifind statistics, the consumption of corrugated base paper in 2021 reached 29.77 million tons, an increase of 7.24%, and the consumption of box board paper 31.96 million tons, an increase of 12.65%. Supply side: The supply maintained a steady growth trend, and mainly concentrated in the top enterprises. The implementation of the "ban on waste" gradually phased out more small and backward production capacity, and after the small and medium-sized production capacity clearance industry pattern is continuously optimized, the head paper mill will gradually realize the low-end profitability. From January to November 2022, 4.25 million tons of corrugated cardboard has been put into production, and 5.5 million tons are expected to be added throughout the year, an increase of 41% year-on-year, and the production capacity will exceed 50 million tons by the end of 2022.

From January to November 2022, a total of 4.25 million tons of corrugated paper and box board paper have been put into production, and it is expected that the annual new production capacity will reach 5.5 million tons, an increase of 41%. New capacity continues to be released, and the pressure on the supply side continues to increase, while the downstream demand side shows a decreasing trend. From November to the end of December, there are still 3 corrugated paper and box board production lines in China, and it is expected that the new production capacity will continue to increase by 1.25 million tons, and the supply side pressure will be upgraded again. Box board industry concentration is high, Nine Dragons Paper, Liwen Paper, Mountain Eagle Paper, Sun paper production capacity accounted for 27%, 13%, 11%, 6%, capacity concentration CR4 is about 55%. From January to November 2022, the new production capacity reached 3.35 million tons (1 million tons of Shanying Paper, 1.2 million tons of Nine Dragons Paper, and 650,000 tons of Bohui Paper), and the industry concentration increased. The concentration of corrugated paper industry is low, Nine Dragons Paper, Golden Phoenix, Mountain Eagle Paper, Rongcheng Paper production capacity accounted for 11%, 5%, 5%, 3%, respectively, corrugated paper production capacity concentration CR4 is only 23%. From January to November 2022, the new production capacity reached 900,000 tons, and the industry concentration continued to increase with the new production capacity of leading paper enterprises.

2.3, Nine Dragons Paper Industry: packaging paper leading enterprise

Packaging paper leading enterprises. The company was established in 1995, headquartered in Dongguan City, Guangdong Province, and listed in Hong Kong in 2006. The main products are cardboard (cow cardboard, green cow cardboard, white cow cardboard and coated cow cardboard), high-strength corrugated core paper, coated grey white board, environment-friendly cultural paper, special paper, high-strength corrugated board, high-strength corrugated carton and pulp. At present, the total designed annual capacity of pulp and paper is 18 million tons, and the total designed annual capacity of packaging paperboard and carton is 1 billion square meters. The company has 9 papermaking bases in China (Dongguan, Taicang, Chongqing, Tianjin, Quanzhou, Shenyang, Leshan, Hebei, Hubei) and 8 packaging bases (Taicang, Dongguan, Tianjin, Chengdu, Shenyang, Zhangmuou, Quanzhou, Chongqing), and 1 papermaking base in Vietnam; 1 pulp mill in Malaysia; It also owns four pulp and paper mills in the United States (Rumford and Old Town, Maine; Biron, Wisconsin; Fairmont, West Virginia).

2.4, Mountain Eagle International: box board paper revenue proportion is the highest, corrugated paper gross margin is the highest

From the point of view of products, in 2021, box board paper revenue accounted for the highest proportion. The revenue contribution of box board paper, paper products and corrugated paper was 135.95/72.95/4.160 billion yuan, respectively, and the proportion of revenue was 41.15%//22.08%/12.59%. In terms of products, in 2021, corrugated paper has the highest gross profit margin. The top three gross profit rates are corrugated paper, other base paper and box board paper, and the gross profit rate decibels are 16.96%/16.93%/13.47%. Among them, the gross profit margin of corrugated paper in 2020 was 15.33%, which was improved in 2021.

According to the company's disclosure of operating data, in January 23, paper sales of 228,400 tons, year-on-year -51.56%; In February 23, paper sales of 430,700 tons, +27.82% (since May 21, except for November 21 peak), after the Spring Festival demand increased. In January 23, the packaging sales volume was 116 million square meters, year-on-year -37.44%; In February 23, the packaging sales volume was 143 million square meters, 17.13% year-on-year (the peak since May 22), and the demand increased after the Spring Festival. In January 23, the income of papermaking was 780.19 million yuan, the income of packaging was 408.32 million yuan, and the total income of papermaking and packaging was 1188.51 million yuan; In February 23, the income of papermaking was 1,430.33 million yuan, the income of packaging was 510.51 million yuan, and the total income of papermaking and packaging was 19,4084 million yuan. From January 21 to February 23, papermaking and packaging revenue as a whole showed periodic changes on an annual basis, with downward fluctuations before the Spring Festival and upward fluctuations after the Spring Festival.