Pulp supply and demand balance table analysis

Iii. Summary and Outlook for 2022

In 2021, pulp prices rose and fell, basically flat throughout the year, and the rise in the first quarter and the fall in the third quarter are still the leading role of finished paper. The production capacity of finished paper is in the rising period, resulting in the profit level of paper mills is difficult to maintain a high level for a long time, and then stop production and maintenance after the profit falls sharply, resulting in a decline in pulp demand.

In 2022, the global supply of coniferous pulp has no large increase, the shipment of major exporting countries in the fourth quarter of 2021 is affected by external factors, and the duration is unknown, but the coniferous pulp sent to China by overseas producers in 2021 is significantly reduced, and imports are expected to rebound in 2022 with the recovery of the price difference between inside and outside. After the domestic policy to stabilize growth, domestic demand and investment are expected to stabilize, the epidemic will weaken after the optional consumption will improve, especially in the first half of the economic activity will be restored, the demand for finished paper is expected to improve, but the education industry "double reduction" policy and the weakening real estate trend, will make the total demand for finished paper difficult to increase. In addition, the continuous increase in paper production capacity will put pressure on the profits of paper mills, which will restrict the recovery space of paper mill opening and pulp demand.

Overall, the supply and demand of the pulp market in 2022 is still loose, and the annual average price has moved down to 5400 yuan/ton. Paper enterprises can combine the historical trend of pulp, buy insurance or stock below 5000 yuan. Traders are concerned about the early rise in the internal trading point, combined with their own long-term cost to lock in import profits.