Wind power: Technology, industry and industrial chain

According to the statistics of the Central Axis Association, in 2020, the installed capacity of wind turbines in the country is 20401, and a total of 479,424 sets of bearings are needed. Domestic bearing enterprises will produce and sell 77,975 sets of wind power bearings in 2020, accounting for 16.3%, the gap between domestic supply and demand of wind power bearings is large, and domestic self-produced bearings are mostly yaw and variable pitch bearings with low value, and the biggest point of the wind power bearing industry is the domestic alternative market space.

6. Castings

Casting is a metal forming object obtained by various casting methods, which is to say that it is blacksmithing. The smelted liquid metal is poured into the pre-prepared mold, the metal obtained after cooling and grinding, and the raw materials are mainly pig iron and scrap steel.

Wind power castings mainly include hub, base, shaft and bearing seat, beam, gear box components (mainly including gear box, torque arm, planetary frame) and other "iron knot".

Castings this industry technical content is not high, it is difficult to be subverted by new technology, cost is the most important factor of competition, without considering the price of raw materials, cost reduction mainly relies on the level of technology and capacity scale, the largest production capacity of the leading enterprise is Riyue shares. Under the premise of sufficient demand and money, leading companies can earn money by expanding production continuously, but they must also pay attention to the expansion progress of their peers to prevent the risk of overcapacity.

7. Fan

After learning the main parts, they are assembled to get the fan.

China's fan industry started late, the early foreign brand market share is relatively high, and then many machine companies from Europe to introduce technology, and then absorb research and development, to build independent fan brand, such as Goldwind technology direct drive technology is in 2004 and Germany Vensys joint development, Mingyang intelligent from 2008 began to cooperate with the European fan company Aerodyn. After the gradual development of our fan enterprises, the market share of foreign brands gradually declined, and the share was given to Chinese manufacturers, but foreign fan technology is not worse than ours, and Chinese fan manufacturers are difficult to go to sea, and the share is difficult to further enhance in the global scope.

So from the perspective of the global fan competition pattern is relatively scattered, the top five Vestas, Goldwind, GE, Vision, Siemens Gamesa market share of 15%, 13%, 11%, 10% and 8%, CR5 is 57%.

China's wind power machine factory competition is fierce, CR3 in the subsidy is coming to an end in the installation market decline sharply, second-line manufacturers through low prices to seize the share of the head manufacturers, indicating that the fan moat is not deep enough.

After wind power enters the era of parity, the competitiveness of products lies in high quality and low price, and the cost reduction pressure of fans is greater. At present, there are three main ideas to improve the profitability of wind power plant: first, the fan large-scale spread single watt cost; Second, optimize supplier management; Third, other high margin business for profit improvement, mainly wind farm development and operation business, in recent years, machine manufacturers have sunk layout in the field of wind farm construction. As for whether the final head manufacturer can maintain its position, it is difficult to say who can rise to seize the market of second-tier manufacturers.

8. Tower barrel

Wind power tower barrel is the tower pole of wind power generation, which mainly plays a supporting role in wind power generation units and absorbs unit vibration at the same time.

The wind power tower is simply a steel column, the direct material accounted for 82% of the cost composition, the freight accounted for 7%, the labor cost was about 6%, the manufacturing cost was about 5%, and the raw materials dominated the price impact of the wind power tower barrel.

The bidding of wind power tower drum is usually separated from the host bidding, using the cost plus model, and the unit price is the price of medium and thick plate steel at the time of signing the contract plus a stable single ton gross profit, so the rise and fall of steel price can be smoothly transmitted to downstream customers, profitability is relatively stable, and profit growth mainly depends on capacity growth.

Due to the large weight and volume of the tower, high transportation costs, and the existence of transportation radius restrictions, the industry competition pattern has been relatively dispersed. In terms of shipments, the company with the highest shipments in 2021 is Tianshun Wind Energy, with a global market share of 12.4%.

According to the production capacity layout, Tianshun wind energy onshore production capacity advantages are obvious, 22 years of global market share of about 17%. Daikin Heavy Industry offshore tower + basic capacity advantage is significant, 22 years of global market share of about 24%, Daikin Heavy Industry production base in Penglai, Shandong Province, and in the local own dedicated dock, Marine tower transport costs are lower, competitors only Taisheng wind energy and Haili wind Power have a dock, and the conditions of the dock is worse than Daikin Heavy Industry.