The first half of 2023 tractor: Heavy truck, Jiefang, Shaanxi automobile Top3

Feature 1: The year-on-year growth rate in one month is the same as that of the heavy truck market; In the first half of the year, the cumulative outperformed the heavy truck market, becoming the backbone of promoting the growth of the heavy truck market

- In June 2023, tractor sales increased by 57% year-on-year, and its growth rate was the same as that of the heavy truck market in June this year; It indicates that the recovery speed of the tractor market is basically consistent with that of other segments of the heavy truck market (such as trucks, dump trucks, mixing trucks, etc.).

From January to June 2023, the cumulative growth of the tractor increased by 47%, outperforming the growth rate of 29% of the heavy truck market in January to June this year by nearly 18 percentage points, indicating that the recovery speed of the tractor market in the first half of this year is significantly greater than other segments of the heavy truck industry (such as trucks, dump trucks, mixing trucks, etc.), becoming the backbone of the growth of the heavy truck market in the first half of this year.

According to the survey and analysis of the automobile terminal network, the main reasons are:

First, the gas tractor market "gives force".

In the first half of this year, gas prices have tended to decline month by month, making gas tractors rise several times more than the same period last year, which strongly promoted the overall sales growth of tractors in the first half of this year; In the heavy truck market, fewer trucks, dump trucks and mixing trucks are equipped with gas-powered engines; Therefore, the growth rate of tractors in the first half of this year is greater than the overall market growth rate of heavy trucks.

The second is the difference in the impact of the epidemic on the market segment in the same period last year.

In the first half of last year, the most seriously affected by the epidemic in the heavy truck market is the tractor (because the tractor is often transported across regions and provinces, and is seriously affected by the epidemic control policy), resulting in a low sales base in the same period last year, so it provides an opportunity for the tractor to rise in the first half of this year; On the contrary, the general application scenarios of dump trucks, mixing trucks and other models in the field of heavy trucks are in the region or urban areas, which are very affected by the epidemic control policies around the country, resulting in a rise in the same period of this year.

Feature 2: Sales in June showed a "double increase"

According to the China Automobile Association data, in June 2023, tractor sales of 45,900 units, an increase of 57% year-on-year, an increase of 8% month-on-month, achieving the same quarter-on-quarter double growth, reversing the situation of May and April month-on-month decline, and the trend is obvious.

-- The reason why the tractor market in June this year can achieve double growth with the same quarter, according to analysis:

First, the sales base affected by the epidemic in May last year was low (only 29,300), which created conditions for year-on-year growth in June this year;

Second, June this year is the seventh month since the epidemic control policy was fully liberalized, and the freight market, especially the medium and long-distance freight market, is gradually recovering, and the demand for tractors has increased compared with May.

Third, the manufacturing PMI in June this year was 49%, up 0.2 percentage points from May this year, indicating that the manufacturing industry in June this year has signs of improvement than May, leading to the tractor market in June is also better than May, and the demand for tractors in June in various industries is better than May.

Fourth, new energy tractor sales in June hit a new high in the first half of this year, to a certain extent, supported the growth of the tractor market this month.

Feature 3: Since March, the cumulative deduction of "4 consecutive rises", and the increase is "rising", and the trend is obvious

Table 2, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of tractor in the first half of 2023 and the cumulative growth rate in each month are as follows:

The table above shows that in the first half of 2023, tractor sales by month:

From March to June this year, the cumulative monthly sales of tractor vehicles showed a "four consecutive increases", increasing from 21% month by month to 47%, showing a rising trend.

According to the analysis, it is mainly caused by the low sales base of heavy trucks affected by the epidemic in the same period last year;

From the monthly sales point of view, March sales hit a new high in each month this year, according to analysis, mainly after the Spring Festival, the various manufacturers do more promotional and promotional activities, in addition, March has always been the heavy truck market sales season, so to a certain extent, push up the tractor sales in March.

- Sales in June ranked second in each month this year, the specific reasons have been analyzed above.

Feature four: Sales of tractor ranked fourth in the same period in the past five years, at a low level

- In the past 5 years of June sales of tractor, the sales volume in June 2023 was 45,900, ranking fourth in the same period of the past 5 years (an increase of 57%, the highest in the same period of the past 5 years).

- The cumulative sales volume of tractor vehicles from January to June 2023 is 253,900, which is also the fourth and lower level in the same period of the past five years (the cumulative sales growth of 47%, which is also the highest in the same period of the past five years);

It can be seen that in the same period of the past five years, whether it is June or January-June, tractor sales are ranked fourth in the same period of the past five years, all at a low level. According to the analysis, the main reasons are:

First, the current economic and consumption recovery is still relatively weak, and the fundamentals of recovery are still not solid.

Second, the cancellation of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles caused the new energy tractor market to perform less than expected in the first half of this year; The first half of the tractor market not only did not play a supporting role, but dragged down the overall tractor market.

Third, in the first half of the year, the manufacturer's tractor inventory is more, on the one hand, the low price of selling inventory vehicles, impacting the new car market with higher prices; On the other hand, it is unable to buy more new models in large quantities to the host manufacturers.

Fourth, upstream enterprises in the tractor market such as coal, steel, cement, etc. have been compressed and reduced, and the output of goods has been sharply reduced, and the demand for tractors has been reduced.

The freight rate of the five medium and long distance freight market is depressed, the market risk is increased, and the enthusiasm of users to buy cars is reduced.

Feature 5: In June, the liberation led the way, with heavy truck and Shaanxi Automobile ranking second and third respectively; TOP10 increased by 6 and decreased by 4 year-on-year, led by Sinotruk

Table 4, according to the data of China Automobile Association, cumulative sales and year-on-year statistics of TOP10 tractors in June, 2019:

As can be seen from the chart above, the cumulative sales and year-on-year and share of TOP10 tractors in June 2023:

-- Jiefang Automobile is the only enterprise with sales of more than 20,000 units (13,500), up 135% year-on-year, outperforming the market, accounting for 29.38% of the market; Win the championship;

-- Sinotruk was the second company to sell more than 10,000 units (10,400), up 148% year-on-year, outperforming the market and leading the industry, winning the second place;

-- Shaanxi Automobile Group sold 6,969 vehicles, down 9% year-on-year, outperforming the market, ranking third in the industry, accounting for 15.18% of the market;

-- Dongfeng Motor sold 5,756 units, up 82% year-on-year, outperforming the market and ranking fourth; Market share 12.54%;

-- Fukuda Motor sales of 4,037 vehicles, down 17% year-on-year, outperforming the market and leading the industry, ranking fifth, accounting for 8.79% of the market;

-- Dayun heavy truck sales of 2,445 units, an increase of 69%, outperforming the market, ranking sixth; Market share 5.32%;

-- The sales of other car companies are below 1,000 units, accounting for less than 2.5% of the market;

-- From the perspective of TOP10 sales year-on-year, 6 increased and 4 decreased, among which Sinotruk led the rise and Foton led the decline.

Feature 6: In the first half of the cumulative sales, Sinotruk first; Jiefang and Shaanxi Automobile are second and third respectively

TOP10 cumulative 7 increase and 3 decline, North Ben led the rise.

Table 5, according to the data of China Automobile Association, cumulative sales, year-on-year, market share and year-on-year change of TOP10 tractors in the first half of 2023:

The chart above shows that in the first half of 2023, the cumulative sales, year-on-year and market share of the TOP10 tractor market:

-- Sinotruk is the only enterprise with cumulative sales exceeding 60,000 units (65,000), up 70% year-on-year, outperforming the market, accounting for 25.58% of the market; Win the championship;

-- Jiefang accumulated sales of 59,500 vehicles, an increase of 55% year-on-year, outperforming the market, accounting for 23.44% of the market, and winning the second place;

-- Shaanxi Automobile Group accumulated sales of 42,600 vehicles, an increase of 52% year-on-year, outperforming the market and ranking third in the industry, accounting for 16.78% of the market;

-- Foton Automobile cumulative sales of 31,300 units, an increase of 34%, underperforming the market, ranking fourth; Market share 12.34%;

-- Dongfeng Motor accumulated sales of 30,000 units, an increase of 28% year-on-year, underperforming the market, ranking fifth, accounting for 11.81% of the market;

-- Dayun heavy truck cumulative sales of 12,200 units, an increase of 19%, underperforming the market, ranking sixth; The market share is 4.8%;

-- The cumulative sales of other car companies are below 4,000 units, accounting for less than 5% of the market;

-- From the TOP10 sales year-on-year, 7 increased and 3 decreased, of which Beiben Heavy truck led the rise, SAIC Hongyan led the decline.

With the gradual recovery of the economy, the tractor market will usher in better development opportunities in the second half of this year!