The use of hydrogen energy

Battery: need to scale, localization

The cost of hydrogen fuel cells at this stage is much higher than that of lithium batteries and general fuel vehicles, and most of the core material technology is still in the hands of other countries. Fortunately, the cost reduction potential of hydrogen fuel cells is relatively large.

In the cost structure of hydrogen fuel cells, the largest proportion is the battery stack, accounting for up to 30%, and other components include air supply system, cooling system, and hydrogen detection supply system. Most of these cost-related problems can be solved at scale.

In order to cope with this possibility in advance, hydrogen fuel cells have started a "low platinum" revolution, platinum load has been reduced from 0.8g to 1g/kW 10 years ago to the current 0.1g to 0.4g/kW, and there is still room for further decline in the future until it reaches the level of precious metal consumption equivalent to the traditional internal combustion engine system (<0.05g/kW).

The early stage of hydrogen fuel cell development can reduce costs by scale, but "localization" is always a hurdle that needs to be overcome in the future. At present, among the core components of hydrogen fuel cells, proton exchange membranes, bipolar plates, and high-pressure gas cylinders are basically dependent on imports, and domestic enterprises have limited production capacity, and product quality is difficult to meet the requirements.

Change is already taking place

How to promote the hydrogen energy industry chain to reduce costs? Twelve years of exploration experience in the market of lithium batteries, China is now also using to promote the change of the hydrogen energy market.

The first is to reduce the cost of the industrial chain with the support of the "carbon neutral" strategy and subsidy policies, and promote the extension of hydrogen energy and the supplement of the grid from the top down.

Although there is currently no relevant industry standards and supporting policies, the "carbon neutral" grand strategy has given more clear guidance. The subsidy policy has sounded the "vanguard" of the development of the hydrogen energy industry chain. Before 2019, China's hydrogen energy industry has gone through a research and development period of 18 years and promotion. After a long period of policy planning, China is now using subsidies to push industries to commercialize.

Subsidies are mainly in three aspects: consumer subsidies for car purchases, hydrogen station subsidies and hydrogen subsidies. In addition to hydrogen subsidies are still under discussion, the first two subsidies have been implemented one after another.

Although new energy vehicle subsidies are in a transition period of decline, the visible hand is gradually withdrawing intervention, but the national policy still retains the subsidy of 0.8 times the corresponding standard for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The consumer subsidies are expected to last until 2025.

Subsidies for the construction of hydrogen refueling stations are mainly dominated by local governments. China's current policy subsidies are more targeted at hydrogen refueling stations with ≥500kg/d refueling capacity, and the construction of such a hydrogen refueling station can obtain subsidies ranging from 3 million to 5 million yuan, but at present, such hydrogen refueling stations still need to fill about 400 hydrogen fuel vehicles per day to achieve break-even [10].

Another driving force is reform on the consumer side. At present, many forces are working together to explore the application scenarios of hydrogen fuel cells, promoting change from the demand side up, and then driving the construction of supporting facilities such as hydrogen refueling stations.

Hydrogen fuel cells have the strongest growth potential in the transportation sector, mainly used in commercial vehicle scenarios such as heavy trucks, buses, and forklifts. As for the passenger car field, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that "pure electric has fully met the requirements."

New forces involved in commercial vehicle manufacturing are less, which has also become an important testing ground for the hydrogen technology revolution. In 2019, the first leg of the hydrogen relay was handed over to the bus industry. That year, 21 cities across the country opened and operated hydrogen fuel cell bus routes.

Hydrogen fuel cell + bus is the most common combination in China at present, because buses have the typical characteristics of "regular and predictable routes", have a very stable and predictable operation mode, and only need to establish a few hydrogen refueling stations along the line.

According to the "Recommended Model Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of New energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 70% of the recommended fuel cell commercial vehicles are hydrogen fuel cell buses, most of which are government procurement. This has a certain social promotion effect.

For commercial vehicles that also have the characteristics of "medium and long distance transportation and fixed lines", hydrogen energy is almost the perfect alternative to diesel, and it is also the easiest commercial battlefield for domestic car companies. Shanghai Shenlong, Zhongtong Bus, Foton Automobile, Yutong Bus, Xiamen Jinlv and many other car brands have begun to lay out hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles.